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政府公共债务与社会支出动态相关分析-论文降重复范本

【中文摘要】:过往关于政府公共债务与社会支出相关性之研究观点各异,对此,曾有学者表示,应用静态相关性不足以解释前揭二变数于时间域与频率域联动性之关係。有鉴于此,本研究採取动态波频分析来检视政府公共债务及社会支出间之动态相关性。
本研究以OECD会员国为研究样本,从中选取1980年至2010年资料较完整之13个国家为研究对象。首先,透过纵横平滑移转迴归模型检视变数间是否存在异质性与相关性的改变;其次,藉由小波相关分析检测研究对象之动态相关性,以了解研究对象之政府公共债务与社会支出于时间域与频率域之变化。
于纵横平滑移转迴归模型中,本研究发现两变

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数间确实存在平滑移转效果与异质性变化;而透过小波相关性分析,更发现两变数间于过去30年来确实存在不稳定且动态变

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化的现象,且该二变数间之短期共移关係较长期共移关係紧密。
【英文摘要】:There’re different views about government debt and social spending in previous studies, and some scholars indicate that it’s not enough to apply static correlation analysis to explain the correlation between the above two variables in the aspects of time and frequency. As a result, the study applies dynamic frequency analysis to examine the dynamic correlation between government debt a

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nd social spending.
The samples are selected from OECD member countries, and the chosen countries are those with more completed data from 1980 to 2010. First, the study uses PSTR model to examine whether the heterogeneity and correlation exist between the two variables or not. Second, wavelet coherency analysis is applied to analyze the dynamic correlation of the samples to understand the changes between government debt and social spending in the aspects of time and frequency.
In the PSTR model, smooth transition and heterogeneity between government debt and social spending are found. Through wavelet coherence analysis, the study finds that instability and dynamic changes exist between government debt and social spending, and the co-movement between the two variables are more intensive in short-term period than in long-term period.
【参考文献】:

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