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华人地区之迎合理论、市场错价、 盈余管理对投资决策与公司价值的影响

【中文摘要】:资本投资对于企业营运是重要及不可或缺的因素,公司经理人的投资决策可以提供投资人未来公司前景的资讯,因此投资决策会影响公司股价在市场的表现
;股价是否反映市场所有资讯亦或价格偏离基本面价值一直是财务学门讨论的议题,本研究以讨好理论为出发点,探讨当股票市场上投资人对公司之股价产生错估情况时,经理人是否可能因此想讨好投资人之情绪,进而改变公司之投资率。经理人应以极大化公司价值为目标,但经理人的短视与讨好行为可能进行过度投资或忽略投资的决策而影响公司价值。投资人在评价的过程盈余的平稳度为极重要的角色,因此,经理人是否同时会进行盈余管理藉以平滑现金流量或盈余来改变投资人对于公司未来前景的看法,经理人的行为与决策对于公司价值具有传递讯息的效果,本研究试图检验迎合理论、市场错价、现金流量波动度对投资决策及公司价值的影响。
本实证结果显示,投资人的错误订价,则经理人会为了迎合投资人进而增加资本投资。在台湾、香港和大陆的资本投资迎合行为,会视不同国家而受到影响。在台湾的公司,资本投资的增加会降低公司的未来股票报酬。
本研究也显示在台湾的公司,其现金流量波动度、盈余波动度愈高将会降低公司价值,尤其是低负债比率的公司更会使这负面影响更为严重。但是在香港、大陆的公司,其现金流量波动度、盈余波动度愈高反而会提升公司价值;此正向效果会因为在中国大陆的公司拥有较小规模、高负债比率或是愈低的现金流而导致此效果更加明显。
【英文摘要】:Capital investments play essential and material role in firms’ business operations and investment decisions of firm managers would convey information of future prospects to public investors, thereby influencing the price performance. Behavior finance provides the catering theory to explain how rational managers change their decisions of capital spending when they perceive the mispricing of public investors. The aim of firm managers should be maximize the shareholders’ wealth and firm value, but manager who are myopia and behave catering may over-invest or under-invest to affect price stock. Variability of earnings and cash flows might deem as key indicators of risk, thereby altering their valuations. Thus, managers may attempt to smooth firms’ earnings and cash flows. This study aims to broadly investigate the influence of catering, mispricing, and cash flow volatility on decisions of capital investment, stock returns, and firm value.
This study presents empirical evidence that due to the increase of mispricing, the manager may cater to the investor by raising capital investment. Capital investment involved in the catering decision has different effects in Taiwan, Hong Kong and China.
The study also shows empirical evidence that volatility of cash flows and earnings are negatively valued by investors and the negative impact might be worsened for firms with low level of debt ratio in Taiwan. But volatility of cash flows and earnings is positively valued by investors in Hong Kong and China and the positive impact might be significantly stronger for firms with small size, high debt ratios or low level of cash flows in China.
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  • 来源:中山大学;作者:洪千雅
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